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How Will Markets React to $2B Bitcoin Options Expiring Today?

Approximately 20,000 Bitcoin options contracts will expire on Friday, Jan. 3, in the first such event of 2025. They have a notional value of $1.93 billion, which is a fraction of last week’s mammoth end-of-year expiry event, so the impact on spot markets is likely to be minimal. Bitcoin Options Expiry This week’s batch of Bitcoin options contracts has a put/call ratio of 0.68, meaning that there are more long (call) contracts expiring than short (put) contract sellers. Open interest, or the value or number of options contracts yet to expire, is highest at the $120,000 strike price, with $1.4 billion in OI, according to Deribit. There is also $1.3 billion in OI at $110,000, so derivatives traders remain bullish with open contracts at higher strike prices. Bitcoin options OI by expiry. Source: Deribit On Jan. 2, Deribit reported that the continuous trading market, or perpetual swaps, is showing more optimistic signals, similar to what was seen before the recent downturn. “Options markets report a similarly mixed message: BTC’s short-tenor volatility smiles remain slightly more skewed toward OTM puts, while longer tenors have increased their bullish tilt.” It added that December’s end-of-year expiration of a significant proportion of the market’s OI in options “did not result in the fireworks that some expected.” Earlier this week, crypto derivatives provider Greeks Live observed that a major short call position had been put on Bitcoin with a notional value of $42 million. The speculator is betting that BTC will not exceed $150,000 by March 28 and stands to net $900,000 from the bet if successful. In addition to today’s Bitcoin options, around 205,000 Ethereum contracts are expiring today. These have a notional value of $710 million and a put/call ratio of 0.82. This brings Friday’s combined crypto options expiry notional value to around $2.6 billion. Crypto Market Outlook Around $160 billion has entered crypto markets since the beginning of the year on Wednesday, lifting total capitalization to $3.56 trillion. Bitcoin has had a solid 24 hours, gaining 1.7% to stand close to the $97,000 level during early trading in Asia on Friday. However, it remains range-bound and needs to clear resistance at the psychological $100,000 level to see further momentum. Meanwhile, Ethereum, which has been predicted to perform well this quarter, has fared better, gaining 2% on the day as it approaches the $3,500 price level. ETH needs to clear $3,600 to break resistance and notch further gains. The altcoins were pretty much all in the green this Friday, with most of them outpacing Bitcoin on daily gains. The post How Will Markets React to $2B Bitcoin Options Expiring Today? appeared first on CryptoPotato .

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Disclaimer: The opinion expressed here is not investment advice – it is provided for informational purposes only. It does not necessarily reflect the opinion of BitMaden. Every investment and all trading involves risk, so you should always perform your own research prior to making decisions. We do not recommend investing money you cannot afford to lose.

Dogecoin investor interest surges – Is DOGE on track to $0.5?

Dogecoin may have just proved that it is still worthy of attention in 2025 courtesy of its bullish weekly performance. Crypto Potato

6 Ways to Be Sure Bitcoin’s Price Will Break The Sky in 2025

For context, Bitcoin returned a yield in average crypto exchange prices of 210% from Nov. 1, 2023, to a historical record high level above $108,000 on Dec. 16, according to data compiled by CoinMarketCap. Compare that to US stocks’ performance over the same time period, and the original and most secure cryptocurrency massively over-indexed for investor profits: Over the same span, the S&P 500 Index, the broad benchmark for US stocks, gained 45% . Meanwhile, the tech-focused Nasdaq Composite jumped by 55% , according to data from Yahoo Finance. What makes Bitcoin’s feat in 2023 especially remarkable is that it was a landmark record year for stocks. However, key analysts among the crypto X community and in traditional finance companies are expecting a repeat of the cryptocurrency sector in 2025. Below are six key factors pouring rocket fuel on the Bitcoin economy. 1. Crashing CX Balance to Bitcoin Price Ratio Based on the simple economics of supply and demand, one of the most bullish portents of 2025 for Bitcoin is the vanishing supply of BTC on crypto exchanges. That decreases the available supply of Bitcoin for sale. The remaining supply is becoming radically more precious and thus commands a higher price. Moreover, the flight of BTC from exchanges signals the intention of owners to hold their stashes long-term. That entails sustained support for Bitcoin’s price at its current levels. The balance of Bitcoin on crypto exchanges crashed over the New Year holiday to a low unseen since Feb. 2018, according to Coinglass data. Meanwhile, BTC’s price is soaring near record highs. 2. Corporations, Governments Join Roaring ’20s The anticipated entry of the US government into the BTC race is another sure sign of massive and lasting price support to come for Bitcoin. In addition to the incoming Trump Administration, which plans to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve, a volley of publicly traded corporations are jumping into the fray. The Donald Trump Administration plans to hold onto its current stockpile of 198,000 BTC, mostly seized from criminal operations, instead of continuing to sell it off at auction. Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R-WY) proposes going further and accumulating one million BTC. She’s taking its disruptive changes to global finance in the Internet era very seriously. Japanese venture capital firm MetaPlanet’s CEO said on New Year’s Eve that he expects other governments in the Asia Pacific region to follow after the US and establish national reserves. Meanwhile, several publicly traded companies, such as MetaPlanet, VA-based MicroStrategy, and CA-based Semler Scientific, are hoarding Bitcoin to bolster their finances and profit from its historic market gains. Plus, there’s the voracious demand on Wall Street for Bitcoin ETFs. 3. Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score: Screaming Bull Signal MVRV stands for market value to realized value. Z-score is a term from statistics that means the average of the differences between a set of values and their average value. This is the ratio of Bitcoin’s market cap to the total of all the BTC calculated at its average market price the last time it moved wallets. A recent article that appeared in Forbes explains why this is important: “By factoring out short-term price fluctuations, realized value offers a clearer view of Bitcoin’s “fair” long-term valuation.” In past cycles, the Bitcoin MVRV ratio flagged the market top within two weeks when the ratio reached 7. On Jan. 1, the MVRV for Bitcoin was under 3, signaling plenty of upside left. In fact, it’s strongly suggestive that Bitcoin’s price could still double from here by the end of the cycle. 4. Bitcoin Hash Rate Tops New All-Time Highs BTC hash rate charted new records through December on a steep upward historical trend line for 2025. The Bitcoin hash rate is a measure of the number of computer cycles BTC mining machines are running to secure the network and keep an accurate, up-to-date copy of the blockchain. When it rises, that’s a bullish sign for Bitcoin’s price because miners must use electricity and tie up computer cycles that could be used for something else to run the cryptocurrency’s core software. They’re doing that to get the blockchain reward for helping to maintain Bitcoin, which is paid out in new BTC. So, a rising hash rate indicates optimism about a rising BTC price going forward from some of the most well-informed stakeholders in the entire enterprise. 5. Macro Rate Cuts and US Federal Deficit Here’s your real Trump bump for crypto assets. On top of an administration that will be friendly to the blockchain sector, Trump’s plans for the federal government over his next term will melt up the federal budget deficit. Fiscal year 2024 was the third largest deficit in history at $1.833 trillion. However, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates that Trump’s plans will do this four more times each year he’s in office. That macro tide is certain to boost inflation across the economy and most dramatically in financial markets like the NYSE, NASDAQ, and Bitcoin exchange markets. 6. Urgent Bitcoin Chart Technical Indicator Bitcoin’s price appeared to be already breaking out of a classic 15-day bullish falling wedge pattern with declining volume on Dec. 31, according to data compiled by CoinGecko. Traders may have to act fast to take this ride up. The year began with a rally from under $93,000 to over $97,000. After a minor retracement, the asset could be primed for more gains even before Trump’s inauguration on January 20. The post 6 Ways to Be Sure Bitcoin’s Price Will Break The Sky in 2025 appeared first on CryptoPotato . Crypto Potato