Donald Trump Just Launched His `Meme Coin`, What Does It Mean For Bitcoin?

Summary I question the launch of Trump’s $TRUMP meme coin and its impact on Bitcoin. While signaling deregulation, I think the coin`s tokenomics could hurt crypto’s short-term credibility. I believe the coin may give opponents arguments against Bitcoin as a U.S. strategic reserve, deterring institutional interest. 90% of Trump`s meme coin supply is controlled by "Creators". Listings on centralized exchanges could increase risks for investors and damage crypto’s reputation. Trump’s meme coin launch may however signal a broader trend of crypto deregulation, which could create a more favorable environment for Bitcoin’s growth as a neutral, decentralized global reserve asset. Despite short-term risks, I believe Bitcoin remains promising as a global reserve asset, with deregulation likely to boost its long-term growth. In this article, I explain why I see the launch of Trump’s “meme coin” as a slightly negative catalyst for Bitcoin ( BTC-USD) in the short term but a positive one in the mid and long term. This belief is rooted in the fact that broader crypto deregulation (signalled by the launch of this coin) will ultimately support Bitcoin’s maturing as the dominant ecosystem. I will start by describing what a meme coin is and sharing my thoughts on the tokenomics of Trump’s meme coin - meaning its economics related to supply, distribution, and utility. Then, I will analyze the good, the bad, and the ugly of what this launch means for Bitcoin, in my opinion. Readers familiar with the crypto space may wish to skip the first section and go directly to my analysis of its implications for Bitcoin. This article is not intended as a recommendation to trade Trump’s meme coin or any other meme coin or blockchain project. All crypto projects mentioned are based on my own research and experience and should not be taken as investment advice. What is a “Meme Coin” and what did Trump do? A meme coin is a cryptocurrency inspired by internet memes, jokes, or pop culture, often created with little to no utility or underlying value. Its value tends to rely solely on community hype and social media trends rather than fundamental factors. DJT`s trump tweet announcing his meme coin (X.com) Donald J. Trump announced on Friday the launch of a Trump meme coin, with ticker $TRUMP . This meme coin was launched on Solana USD ( SOL-USD ), a popular blockchain that competes with Ethereum USD ( ETH-USD ). As a crypto enthusiast, it took me a good 30 minutes to figure out which one was exactly Trump’s “official meme coin”, as there are dozens of meme coins with similar names available on Ethereum, Solana and other chains. Interestingly, even Seeking Alpha features a “TrumpCoin USD” ( TRUMP-USD ), which is NOT Trump’s official meme coin, but rather another unrelated meme coin launched in May last year. The challenge in identifying the "correct" Trump meme coin is partly due to the fact that, at the time of writing, this can only be purchased through decentralized exchanges (DEXs). These are blockchain-based platforms that use smart contracts to facilitate trading without a central entity or control, unlike centralized exchanges (CEXs) such as Coinbase, Inc. ( COIN ). To make matters more complicated, the Trump meme coin is only available on those DEXs which deal with Solana, its underlying blockchain. An example of such a DEX is Moonshot, which is what the official website of the Trump meme coin suggests to people interested in buying it. Another popular option for Solana, which I personally sometimes use, is raydium.io. Using a DEX implies having a hot wallet that works with the Solana blockchain, and some level of technical understanding of the crypto space. Trump’s meme coin tokenomics: not great Trump`s meme coin white paper (gettrumpmemes.com) What stands out from Trump’s meme coin “white paper,” in my view, is that only about 10% of Trump’s meme coin supply is available for trading during this initial phase. The remaining 90% is locked by what the official website refers to as “Creators” and is planned for gradual release over the next 36 months. I find these tokenomics concerning, as they allow the "Creators" to potentially liquidate their holdings unexpectedly, which could harm investors. This type of setup is often associated with “ rug pulls ” in the crypto space, where creators dump their tokens, leaving investors with significant losses. A prominent example occurred earlier this year when a U.S. social media influencer faced backlash after her token was rug-pulled. That said, the creators’ control over the majority of Trump’s meme coin supply does not guarantee a rug pull. This ultimately depends on their actions. Additionally, it’s worth noting that Trump’s meme coin website includes a prominent disclaimer stating that the coin is not an investment opportunity but rather a symbolic expression of support for the incoming U.S. president. Trump Memes are intended to function as an expression of support for, and engagement with, the ideals and beliefs embodied by the symbol "$TRUMP" and the associated artwork, and are not intended to be, or to be the subject of, an investment opportunity, investment contract, or security of any type. GetTrumpMemes.com is not political and has nothing to do with any political campaign or any political office or governmental agency. Personally, I don’t see the relevance of Trump’s meme coin to the crypto space or Bitcoin as having anything to do with its viability as an investment - it’s not, and I strongly encourage readers not to view it that way. What does this mean for Bitcoin? The good, the bad, the ugly. I believe Bitcoin possesses all the technical qualities required to become a superior global reserve asset: durability, divisibility, fungibility, portability, verifiability, and scarcity. Given these attributes, I see Bitcoin at current levels as an asymmetric bet on its potential adoption as a global reserve asset, complementing and partially replacing gold and fiat currencies held by major nations as reserves. Author`s model for BTC valuation (Author`s own work) My model for evaluating Bitcoin is outlined in the table above. In my most recent update , I revised the expected value range to $112,500 to $200,000 per Bitcoin . While I won’t dive deeper into the details of my model in this article, I encourage readers to explore my previous work and thoughts on Bitcoin, available on my Seeking Alpha profile . In the context of this model, viewing Bitcoin as an asymmetric bet, a critical factor will be whether the U.S. adopts a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve. Senator Cynthia Lummis has introduced a “ Bitcoin Act ” to Congress, and Trump has pledged during his campaign to support such legislation. In the following paragraphs, I will discuss the good, the bad and the ugly of how I believe the launch of Trump’s “meme coin” could influence Bitcoin. Of particular importance is its impact on the likelihood of the U.S. adopting a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve. The good: Deregulation A US president launching a meme coin just two days before his inauguration is something that I personally could have never imagined happening just one year ago. At that time, SEC Chair Gary Gensler was just barely conceding defeat in a multi-year battle against approving Bitcoin ETFs after losing a pivotal court case . In my view, this is a clear signal we are entering a new deregulation era for crypto. Donald Trump has campaigned heavily on overall deregulation , including deregulating the banking and crypto industries. The launch of the Trump meme coin happened the Friday before Gary Gensler’s official day of resignation - Monday, January 20th 2025. I believe this is no coincidence. The Trump’s administration has shaped up to be very crypto-friendly, with nominations such as Paul Atkins as new SEC chair and Gail Slater as head of the Justice Department’s antitrust division. I see the launch of this crypto project as yet another signal that this administration is going to heavily deregulate and incentivize the Crypto industry on US soil. Readers who, like me, trust in the market’s ability to self-regulate and view government intervention as something to minimize, will likely agree that this is a positive catalyst for both Bitcoin and the broader US economy. Of course, readers who believe governments should be heavily involved in regulation might disagree with my view. Personally, I’m not a fan of meme coins or any other blockchain projects outside of Bitcoin. While I observe the broader crypto space with interest, my exposure is overwhelmingly focused on Bitcoin, which makes up more than 95% of my crypto holdings. Despite my Bitcoin-first perspective, I view broader crypto deregulation as a positive for Bitcoin . I believe Bitcoin, as the only mature and truly neutral, decentralized blockchain project, is best positioned to outperform other projects in the long term. This is especially true in relation to Bitcoin as a global reserve asset that might complement the role of gold. The bad: meme coins “investors” beware There is no doubt in my mind that Trump’s meme coin tokenomics are potentially a dangerous setup. While I believe the project’s website is very clear about this meme coin not being an investment, I still see a risk that some people might lose money if they put significant amounts of money into this meme coin. This might very well happen even if the meme coin does not go through a “rug pull,” but simply stagnates or slowly declines in value over time. I believe the fact that the Trump meme coin is only available to purchase via DEXs has “shielded” most investors so far. Many, in my view, are simply not savvy enough about the crypto space to go through the process of buying this coin via a DEX. However, this is bound to change soon. Coinbase and other CEXs have already announced they plan to list Trump’s meme coin. I see this as a significant risk that will put people in danger of losing money and “tarnish” the reputation of cryptocurrencies (and, by reflection, Bitcoin) at scale. As a proponent of free markets, ultimately I don’t view this risk as a fundamental issue - one could argue that reckless investors and gamblers should be aware of the risks they’re taking. However, I still see it as a “bad” short-term catalyst for Bitcoin, as it could deter investors, particularly institutional ones, from engaging with Bitcoin. The ugly: A potential argument against a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Readers might believe that a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve is more likely to happen when the US president launches a meme coin. I disagree. I believe Trump might have handed his opponents a powerful argument against the adoption of a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve by launching his own meme coin with such short notice before installation. Trump`s administration now holds control over the House of Representatives, the Senate, and the Presidency. Additionally, six of the nine Supreme Court justices were appointed by Trump, giving his administration significant influence across all branches of government. Despite this apparent dominance, I believe the passage of a “Bitcoin Act” would still require committee reviews, debates, and amendments. Bipartisan support would also be preferable to ensure the long-term viability of a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve for the U.S. However, I believe this now seems less likely following the launch of Trump’s meme coin with questionable tokenomics. Political opponents may challenge the idea of a Bitcoin Reserve, questioning whether it should include other cryptocurrencies or arguing that Trump’s associates appear to have financially benefited from the meme coin’s launch. This could fuel opposition to Bitcoin adoption, framing it as a means of enriching Trump’s circle rather than a strategic decision for the U.S. economy. Polymarket - chances of BTC reserve in the first 100 days of Trump`s admin (Polymarket.com) Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction platform that accurately forecasted Trump’s election victory, currently places the likelihood of a Bitcoin reserve being established within the first 100 days of Trump’s administration at 42%. This is a notable increase from the 25% probability I observed during my last update to my Bitcoin model. However, I personally believe that the launch of Trump’s meme coin may have undermined the credibility of his incoming administration in the eyes of many. This, in my view, reduces the likelihood of Bitcoin being adopted by the U.S. as a strategic reserve and is a net negative catalyst for Bitcoin in the short term. Risks This article is not intended as a recommendation or suggestion to trade any cryptocurrency, including Trump’s meme coin. Cryptocurrencies, particularly meme coins, are highly speculative and carry substantial risks. As a crypto enthusiast, I was surprised to see the sheer number of Trump-themed coins currently in circulation. Beyond the challenge of even simply identifying and accessing Trump’s official meme coin, this type of trade involves significant risks, including lack of regulation, potential fraud, and extreme price volatility. Investors should proceed with caution and be fully aware of these risks. Regarding my thoughts on what Trump’s meme coin means for Bitcoin, I acknowledge that I could be wrong. Deregulation of the cryptocurrency space could lead to chaos in this space, potentially permanently undermining Bitcoin`s chances of emerging as the dominant blockchain ecosystem for a digital reserve asset and scaring investors away from this asset class. Conversely, I may also be wrong in assuming that Trump’s meme coin launch is reducing the chances of the U.S. adopting Bitcoin as a strategic reserve. The Trump administration could move quickly to pass its “Bitcoin Act,” and the meme coin might ultimately simply prove to be a lighthearted way to engage supporters and rally political enthusiasm. Conclusion I view the launch of Trump’s official meme coin as a slightly net negative catalyst for Bitcoin in the short term. Political opponents may use it as a case study to argue that crypto-related legislation, including the adoption of Bitcoin as a reserve asset, primarily serves to enrich Trump’s associates rather than benefit the United States as a whole. While I personally disagree with this assessment and view Trump’s meme coin simply as a fun way to engage with his audience, it remains a political risk that could undermine the likelihood of the US adopting Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset in the near future. On the positive side, I see Trump’s meme coin as a symptom and signal of a broader trend for this upcoming administration: deregulation. As a proponent of free markets, I believe this is a long-term positive catalyst for the US economy and for the crypto industry. I’m confident that Bitcoin will thrive in a deregulated crypto environment, emerging as the most mature, neutral, and truly decentralized blockchain - one that possesses all the necessary characteristics to become a global reserve asset.

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