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Trump’s Tariff Shock Spurs 2025 Recession Fears: Odds Soar Above 60%

Traders across major prediction markets are growing increasingly convinced that the U.S. economy could dip into recession next year—thanks, in large part, to President Donald Trump’s sweeping new tariff order. On Kalshi, a regulated prediction platform, the probability of a U.S. recession in 2025 now stands at 61%, marking a near-doubling in odds since just March 20. Recession Bets Rise Sharply After Tariff Announcement These figures align closely with rival platform Polymarket , where users have currently priced in a 60% chance that the U.S. will experience two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth—the standard recession definition used by the U.S. Department of Commerce. The sudden shift in sentiment follows Trump’s April 2 executive order imposing broad tariffs on all foreign imports, escalating tensions with key trading partners and sparking panic in capital markets. The fallout has been swift: equities tumbled, volatility surged, and safe-haven assets like gold and Bitcoin began catching a bid. Here’s What Pompliano Says While the policy move drew immediate criticism from economists and investors alike, some market commentators believe it could be part of a larger political strategy. Notably, Anthony Pompliano, investor and co-founder of Morgan Creek Digital, suggested that Trump might be intentionally triggering market instability to push the Federal Reserve into cutting interest rates. Pompliano pointed to the decline in 10-year U.S. Treasury yields, which dropped from 4.66% in January to 4.00% by April 5, as proof that investor expectations for rate cuts are growing. If Trump’s goal is to weaken the economy just enough to force monetary easing ahead of the election cycle, it may already be working. In an April 4 post on Truth Social, Trump didn’t shy away from pressing the Fed: “This would be a perfect time for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to cut interest rates.” Such direct calls to the central bank—especially amid heightened economic uncertainty—are likely to increase pressure on policymakers navigating the delicate balance between inflation control and economic growth. The post Trump’s Tariff Shock Spurs 2025 Recession Fears: Odds Soar Above 60% appeared first on TheCoinrise.com . CoinTurk News

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Bill Ackman Hints Trump Could Hit Pause on Tariffs: Details

Billionaire investor and longtime crypto supporter Bill Ackman is betting that President Donald Trump may hit the brakes—at least temporarily—on his sweeping tariff rollout. With just hours to go before the next phase of tariffs is set to hit some of America’s largest trade partners, Ackman believes Trump might opt for a calculated pause. Trump to Delay Implementation? In a post on X dated April 5, the Pershing Square Capital Management founder noted, “One would have to imagine that President Trump’s phone has been ringing off the hook. The practical reality is that there is insufficient time for him to make deals before the tariffs are scheduled to take effect.” Trump’s executive order, signed on April 2, introduced a 10% baseline tariff on all imports, effective April 5. But harsher tariffs—targeting countries like China and Germany—are slated to begin April 9, unless Trump changes course. Ackman argues that the delay could serve a dual purpose: it would not only buy time for trade negotiations, but also help avoid an economic shock that could send companies and consumers reeling. Crypto Holds Strong as Stocks Stumble Interestingly, while traditional markets have been jittery since the announcement, crypto assets have shown surprising resilience. The U.S. stock market lost more in value during trading on April 4 than the entire crypto market’s worth. That divergence hasn’t gone unnoticed. Ackman, who voiced strong support for the crypto industry after the collapse of FTX in 2022 , now finds himself on the same page as other crypto power players. Arthur Hayes and Cameron Winklevoss—co-founders of BitMEX and Gemini, respectively—have also recently backed Trump’s trade policies , seeing them as part of a global economic shift that may favor decentralized assets. According to Ackman, Trump pausing tariffs would be a rational move economically. “The risk of not doing so is that the massive increase in uncertainty drives the economy into a recession , potentially a severe one,” he warned. With markets bracing and political pressure mounting, Ackman expects April 7 to be a pivotal moment. “One of the more interesting days in U.S. economic history,” he called it. Whether Trump pivots or powers ahead, the impact on both global trade and crypto markets could be profound. The post Bill Ackman Hints Trump Could Hit Pause on Tariffs: Details appeared first on TheCoinrise.com . CoinTurk News